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IEA Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025

Written by Shaun Walsh | Sep 16, 2025 4:50:51 PM

The IEA has just published its 2025 mid-year report on electricity demand. Here is a summary of the report, along with an analysis of its impact on the demand for dielectric film, which puts the world on pace to double electricity demand by 2045, based on a 3.5% annual growth rate. In 2025, an estimated $3.3 trillion is expected to be invested in global energy generation. Of this, around $2.2 trillion will support renewables, nuclear power, electricity grids, storage, low-emission fuels, energy efficiency, and electrification. This is double the amount set for oil, natural gas, and coal, which will receive around $1.1 trillion.

Electricity Demand Projected to Grow by 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026

Despite global economic uncertainties, electricity demand surged worldwide in early 2025, driven by industrial, data center, electrification, and climate-driven cooling needs. The IEA projects a 3.3% increase in demand for 2025 and a 3.7% rise in 2026, both significantly above the trends of the previous decade and more than double the total energy demand growth rates. Growth is fastest in sectors embracing electrification, particularly in China and India, where increased air conditioning use, industrial expansion, and a surge in electric vehicle uptake drive demand. Together, these two economies are set to account for 60% of global demand growth through 2026, while the US is expected to experience above-trend growth (2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026), primarily driven by data center expansion. The European Union is also likely to return to modest growth (1.1% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026), recovering from the prior contraction in the industrial sector.

China, India, the US, and the EU Global Electricity Demand

  • China - After a 7% surge in 2024, Chinese electricity consumption is projected to grow 5% in 2025 (accelerating to 5.7% in 2026). Data center, EV, heat pump, and industrial electrification are driving forces, with new peak loads reaching record levels. The manufacturing of new energy vehicles and solar cells saw dramatic increases in 2025, while summer heatwaves further drove demand for cooling and appliances.
  • India - The outlook remains robust, with electricity demand forecast to grow 4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026. Factors include industrial recovery, higher AC penetration, increased EV infrastructure, and significant government policy shifts that support electrification.
  • United States - Demand grew by 2.7% in H1 2025, with full-year forecasts of 2.3% and 2.2% into 2026. Data centers, electrification of transport and heating, and industrial facility growth underlie the expansion.
  • European Union - Preliminary 2025 growth (1.1%) and acceleration to 1.5% next year marks a return after previous declines. Manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors are stabilizing, with some industries (pharma, aluminium) rebounding.

Electricity Supply Mix Changing

The growth in solar and wind power is a significant shift in the global electricity supply mix. Together, these renewable sources are projected to account for over 90% of the growth in global electricity demand by 2025. Global wind and solar production is set to exceed 5,000 TWh in 2025 and nearly 6,000 TWh in 2026. The world’s renewables are projected to finally overtake coal-fired generation by 2026 at the latest, causing coal’s share to fall below 33% for the first time in a century. Solar PV and wind’s share of global electricity generation will jump from 15% in 2024 to nearly 20% in 2026, a fivefold increase over a decade.

Hydropower, the largest source of renewable electricity, is expected to grow very little in 2025 due to droughts but should rebound by over 2% in 2026. Nuclear power generation is poised to reach new records, with steady growth in China, India, France, Japan, and the US, increasing at an average annual rate of % through 2026.

Fossil fuel generation trends diverge: coal output is expected to decline by 0.6% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, with China and Europe experiencing contraction. Gas-fired output is expected to increase by 1.3% annually, reaching historic highs, primarily due to the switch from oil to gas and sustained demand in Asia.

Global Power Plants

Let’s examine the impact on grid infrastructure and capacitor film demand based on the new projections. The estimated number of grid-level power plants worldwide is at least 10,000 to 12,000 major facilities, which are growing almost daily with the addition of new plants using coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources as of 2025.

  • ~12,000 grid-scale power plants in operation today
  • Each power plant is supported by ~9 substations of different sizes
  • Each substation has 4fourcapacitor banks per substation
  • Each capacitor bank has 9ninecapacitors per bank
  • Each capacitor uses ~250 pounds of film

Estimated New 3.5% TWh of Power Demand in 2025 & 2026

With a projected 3.5% global electricity demand growth in 2026, total consumption will increase by approximately 992 TWh over the 2025 baseline of 28,307 TWh:

28,757TWh * 0.035 = new 1,064 TWh

This figure accounts for expected incremental demand, factoring in a margin for additional grid resilience and electrification trends.

Estimated Number of New 1GW Power Plants

To meet an additional 992 TWh, assuming each 1GW plant operates at full capacity for a year (producing 8.76 TWh).

1,064TWh \ 8.76 1GW Power Plants = 122 new 1GW power plants/year

This results in an estimated 13 new 1GW grid-level plants, allowing for some operational redundancy or periods of lower availability.

Estimated Number of New Substations

In the United States, there are approximately 6,400 power plants and 55,000 substations. Globally, estimated ratios remain similar as most grid-level plants feed transmission substations, followed by multiple step-down substations that serve localities. Modern network planning targets an average of 9 substations per power plant for widespread delivery and reliability:

122 GW Plants * 9 Substatoins = 1,098

Estimated Number of Grid Power Capacitor Banks

The average substation typically has between 4 and 6 capacitor banks, depending on the voltage level, regional grid configuration, and reactive power requirements. Individual banks may comprise multiple capacitor units, configured in parallel and series, to achieve the desired Mvar ratings and voltage support. On average, each substation will utilize 4fourcapacitor banks: 

1,098 *4 Capaciotr Banks = 4,392 capacitor banks

Estimated Number of Grid Power Capacitors Required

Each utility-scale capacitor bank in a substation typically contains 9 to 36 individual capacitors arranged in parallel or series-parallel configurations, depending on voltage and reactive power (kVAR) requirements.

  • Distribution substations - A standard configuration typically features around nine capacitors in parallel per bank, especially when utilizing 200 kVAR units for standard transmission or distribution setups.
  • Large Substations - Open-air or high-voltage capacitor banks may include from 4 to 36 capacitors per bank frame structure, the count scaling with the required reactive power support.
  • Each capacitor unit’s rating (typically 100, 200, or 300 kVAR) and the bank’s total capacity will dictate the exact number per bank, but 9 is a very typical number for utility distribution installations.

For most planning and estimation purposes, nine capacitors per bank is a reliable average for substation capacitor banks. Most substation capacitor banks are constructed using approximately nine individual capacitor units per bank in common utility-scale designs, particularly for standard transmission and distribution shunt banks. If higher kVAR or voltage is required, large open-rack banks can range from 4 to 36 capacitors per bank, depending on the system's requirements. For most medium-voltage and many high-voltage stations, the industry standard is to have 9ninecapacitors per bank, configured in parallel or a mix of parallel/series connections to achieve the desired total rating. On average, each bank typically consists of 9 capacitors:

4,392 * 9 = 39,528 new grid capacitors

Estimated Amount of New Capacitor Film Needed Per Year

If each capacitor requires 250 pounds of film for production: 

39,528 * 250 = 9,880,000 new pounds of capacitor film

Keeping up With Demand

Based on the latest IEA data, the rapid pace of global electricity demand growth—now projected at 3.5% annually for 2026—signals a transformative acceleration in required grid infrastructure, generation capacity, and supporting technologies worldwide. This scenario will necessitate the construction of over 100 new large-scale power plants, more than 1,000 substations, and tens of thousands of new capacitors and related industrial components, all within a single year, to sustain reliability and meet the rising demand for digital, industrial, and electrification-driven loads.

2x Global Demand By 2045

At a sustained 3% annual growth rate, global electricity consumption is expected to double over the next two decades, reaching 3.5 times its current level. This means the infrastructure investments required will match the achievements of the entire history of the power sector, presenting logistical, financial, and technological challenges on an unprecedented scale.

Strategic Implications for Utilities and Industry

An unwavering focus on scalable engineering, resilient supply chains, and advanced grid design is essential. The transition will test the limits of manufacturing, materials sourcing, and system planning, creating both risk and opportunity for innovators willing to enable the next era of electrification. With the global energy transformation gaining momentum, industry leaders, policymakers, and financiers must work closely together to deliver secure, sustainable, and reliable electricity to all parts of society, recognizing that the next doubling of demand is already on the horizon.