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Fusion Energy - From Theory to Commercialization

The Hope of Unlimited Clean Energy

When I was growing up in the 1980s, cold fusion was one technology that was supposed to be the next hope of clean, limitless, clean energy. Cold fusion is a hypothesized type of nuclear reaction that would occur at or near room temperature, contrasting with the high-temperature processes of 'hot' fusion. In 1989, electrochemists Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons reported anomalous heat from the electrolysis of heavy water on a palladium electrode, suggesting nuclear processes. The cold fusion claims initially received wide media attention and raised hopes for a new energy source but were met with skepticism and failed replications by the scientific community. Sadly, this hope was misplaced. Forty years later, I find myself working in the field of fusion energy with a renewed promise of clean, limitless energy.

The Promise of Fusion Energy is Real

Hot fusion is based on measurable and repeatable science, unlike cold fusion. At the recent Fusion Industry Association (FIA) Policy Day, Rep.(D) Zoe Lofgren took the stage and announced the results of a Feb 12, 2024, experiment at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) that produced an estimated 5.2 MJ—more than doubling the input energy of 2.2 MJ. “A 5.2 megajoule hit was accomplished with an energy gap of 2.34 differential, which is another major milestone on the path to commercialization.” Additional experiments using higher laser energies and producing even higher energy yields are expected in the coming months, demonstrating that NIF can repeatedly conduct fusion experiments at multi-megajoule levels of energy output. This incremental growth in fusion reactor output, enabled by billions in funding from government agencies and another $6B in private fusion investments, has brought us to the brink of commercialization. Let’s look at how fusion has moved from theoretical to implementation.

The History of Fusion Energy

The history of fusion energy research began in the early 20th century as scientists sought to understand the fundamental processes powering the stars. In 1920, British astrophysicist Arthur Eddington proposed that stars derive energy from hydrogen fusion into helium. This laid the theoretical groundwork for the development of fusion energy. Over the following decades, key breakthroughs advanced the understanding of fusion. In 1929, quantum tunneling was discovered, showing that fusion could occur at lower energies than previously believed. In 1934, Ernest Rutherford's famous experiment demonstrated the first human-caused fusion reaction, fusing deuterium into helium and observing "an enormous effect." Rutherford's student Mark Oliphant discovered the heavier hydrogen isotopes tritium and helium. Further critical details on the history of fusion energy research include:

Early Fusion Energy Discoveries (1920s-1950s)

1920s - British astrophysicist Arthur Eddington proposed that stars derive energy from hydrogen fusion into helium.
1930s - Hans Bethe unraveled the specific fusion reactions powering the Sun.
1940s - The US, UK, and Soviet Union governments initiated classified fusion research programs and began exploring fusion harnessing.
1950 - The Soviets proposed the tokamak design for magnetic confinement fusion, while Lyman Spitzer introduced the stellarator concept.

Era of Fusion Energy Experimentation (1960s-1980s)

1960s - Fusion research was declassified, increasing global collaboration under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This started a race to explore various fusion approaches, including magnetic confinement (tokamaks, stellarators) and inertial confinement (lasers, particle beams).
1968 - The tokamak, developed in the Soviet Union, achieved unprecedented high temperature and plasma confinement time.
1970s - The US experienced a "golden age" of fusion research with broad governmental support, and the Joint European Torus (JET) project, involving 11 European nations, was launched.
1980s - Growing funding constraints led to a focus on scientific understanding, strengthening international collaboration through IAEA initiatives, and forming the ITER (meaning “The Way” in Latin) project.

Era of Fusion Energy Development (1990s-2010s)

1990s - Continued progress in plasma science and engineering paved the way for more efficient and powerful fusion machines.
2007 - The ITER Organization was officially established in France to demonstrate fusion energy production's scientific and technological feasibility.
2010s - The focus shifted towards commercial viability and practical energy production, with advancements in materials science and superconducting magnets.

Era of Fusion Commercialization (2025 and Beyond)

2024 - Milestones include JET achieving a record fusion power output in 2021, the first positive yield (more power out than power in). In 2024, the National Ignition Facility reached a 2.3X increased power yield.
2025 - In 2023, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said they expect to publish new rules for fusion in 2025, and so has the UKAEA to encourage growth and protect the public.
2028 - Expected delivery of Helion's first commercial fusion energy power plant of at least 50 megawatts to Microsoft.

The Journey to Commercialization of Fusion Energy

According to Bloomberg, the total commercial market for fusion energy is estimated to achieve a jaw-dropping $40 trillion valuation one day. Helion's first commercial contract was to deliver a fusion reactor to Microsoft in 2028. Many vital issues must be resolved to achieve mass market commercialization, including:

Regulations - The US NRC and UKAEA are still determining the right balance of regulatory rules to define how and when fusion reactors can be deployed.
Scale - ITER, NIF, and other fusion facilities have proven that fusion energy works and can produce more energy than it consumes, but it needs to scale to be commercially viable.
Supply Chain - The fusion industry must build a new allied-nation supply chain to support the deployment and infrastructure to integrate fusion energy. This includes high-power capacitors and switches, fusion fuel, confinement chambers, magnets, lasers, etc.
Cost—The fusion industry, led by companies like Helion, Commonwealth Fusion Sytems, General Fusion, and Zap Energy, is another fusion reactor company that still has to prove it can deliver fusion at a lower cost than other alternatives. However, fusion should have an advantage in leveraging existing power lines and other infrastructure.
Public Acceptance - Governments and the fusion industry players both have a significant public relations job in front of us as an industry to educate and gain support for fusion energy with the public.

Type of Commercial Fusion Energy Reactors

The FIAs Global Fusion Industry Report highlights ten different fusion energy reactor types, with the three most adopted options being:

Magnetic confinement (tokamaks and stellarators)
Inertial confinement (laser)
Magneto-inertia (hybrid)

Magnetic Confinement Fusion

Tokamaks are large doughnut-shaped reactors that use strong magnetic fields to confine superheated plasma. Major projects include:
- ITER (international collaboration)
- Chinese CFETR
- UK's Tokamak Energy ST40
Stellarators: Twisting magnetic field designs that confine plasma without a strong electrical current.
- Large Helical Device in Japan
- Princeton Stellarators Inc. and Type One Energy Group are working on stellarator designs.

Inertial Confinement Fusion

Powerful lasers or ion beams are used to heat and compress a small fuel pellet rapidly, triggering fusion reactions. Major projects include:
- National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Lab in the US
- HiPER project in Europe
- Focused Energy Inc. and Xcimer Energy Inc. - working on inertial confinement approaches

Magneto-Inertial Fusion

Combines aspects of magnetic and inertial confinement. The plasma is first magnetically confined, then rapidly compressed using mechanical or explosive forces. Major projects include:
- General Fusion in Canada is developing Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF)
- Stabilized Liquid Liner Implosions at Los Alamos National Lab

Other Possible Implementations

Realta Fusion Inc. is working on a magnetic confinement (mirror) approach
Zap Energy Inc. is pursuing a Z-pinch confinement approach
Electrostatic/Hybrid Confinement
Muon-Catalyzed Fusion
Non-Thermal Laser Fusion
Closed Orbit, Velocity Resonant Systems
Rydberg Matter Fuel-Based Fusion

It remains to be seen which of these options ultimately achieves the best balance of scale, cost, safety, and acceptance. Over the next decade, we will sort this out as early pilot reactors are deployed. By the 2040s, we expect mass-market deployment of fusion energy.

From Promise to Practical Fusion Energy

In the immortal words of Timbuk3’s “The Future So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades,” fusion energy seems to be on the path to fulfilling its promise and moving toward practical deployments. Fusion is one of many technologies that can improve our world by bringing clean and abundant energy to everyone. This will hopefully enable a new level of economic and human prosperity.

Sources:

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